Holiday Retail Sales Will Meet Expectations, Says NRF

Washington, D.C. — Retail spending in November aligned with expectations and portends a strong holiday season, reports the National Retail Federation (NRF). Citing information for November provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, the NRF says that core retail sales — excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 3.3 percent year-over-year on a three-month moving average. According to the bureau, overall retail sales in November were up 4.1 percent year-over-year. The NRF predicts that holiday retail sales, which fall between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, will meet the federation’s forecast and increase between 3 and 4 percent relative to 2022, reaching between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. The Wall Street Journal reports that slower inflation, which is on the down swing, “might make consumers feel better” and “weigh on retail revenue.” The consumer price index (CPI) slipped from 3.2 percent in October to 3.1 percent in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.